Heidenheim vs Elversberg
May 22, 2025, 21:30 (MSK)
Bundesliga Play-off Match
Prepared by: 1predict.com
The upcoming play-off match between Heidenheim and Elversberg holds immense significance for both teams. Heidenheim is fighting to retain its place in the Bundesliga, while the sensational Elversberg is on the verge of a historic promotion to the top division. We will conduct a comprehensive analysis of the current form, statistics, tactical features, and motivation of both teams to determine the most probable outcome of this crucial confrontation.
Over the past decade, Heidenheim and Elversberg have not played any official head-to-head matches. This fact makes the upcoming encounter particularly unpredictable, as both teams will have to adapt to an unfamiliar opponent on the field.
After the 33rd round, Heidenheim already knew they would remain in 16th place in the Bundesliga, regardless of the outcome of their final home match against "Werder" in the 34th round. As a result, Frank Schmidt's players suffered a crushing 1:4 defeat. The only goal for the hosts was scored by midfielder Luca Kerber after an assist from Leo Scienza.
In their debut season in the Bundesliga 2023/24, the team surprised everyone by finishing 8th and even securing a spot in the Conference League. However, they failed to repeat this success in the current season. Now, Heidenheim faces Elversberg to retain their place in the elite division of German football. The team has not won at home for four consecutive matches (one draw and three defeats). In 17 home league matches, they have secured only three victories, drawn twice, and suffered 12 defeats. This is the worst home record among all Bundesliga teams this season.
Horst Steffen's team can make history. Elversberg will play against Heidenheim for the right to compete in the Bundesliga next season. This is truly an amazing team: in the 2021/2022 season, they played in the Regional League, in 2022/2023 – they became champions of the 3. Liga and were promoted to the 2. Bundesliga. Last season, the club solidified its position there, finishing 11th, and this season they finished third, now having the chance to reach the top division of German football for the first time in their history.
To secure third place, Elversberg needed to defeat "Schalke" in the final round. The team successfully completed the task, winning thanks to goals from Lucas Petkov and Maurice Neubauer, although the end of the match was tense after conceding a goal (2:1). As a result, the club finished the season with 16 wins, 10 draws, and 8 defeats.
Below is the current league table for the Bundesliga/2. Bundesliga (depending on the league relevant to the match), reflecting the teams' positions at the time of analysis. Team positions in the table play a crucial role in their motivation and tactical objectives for the upcoming match.
Note: The table presents data for [League Name, e.g., Bundesliga or 2. Bundesliga] as of [Date of last table update].
Heidenheim:
Elversberg:
In 17 home matches, Heidenheim scored only 13 goals (an average of 0.8 per game) and conceded 33 (an average of 2.5). In turn, Elversberg, in 17 away matches in the 2. Bundesliga, secured 7 wins, 7 draws, and suffered only 3 defeats, scoring 25 goals (an average of 1.8 per game) and conceding only 12 (0.7 on average).
Considering these figures and Heidenheim's weak home form, it is also important to remember that there is still a difference in level between the Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga. Therefore, we cannot state with full confidence that Elversberg will cope with the excitement in their first play-off match.
Most likely, the visitors will not take risks and will keep the idea of the return home leg in mind. That is why, based on the analysis, we are inclined to consider the option of under 3 total goals in the match – the encounter may well be restrained and not rich in scoring opportunities.
In the previous 10 matches, Heidenheim earned 42 corners (an average of 4.2 per game), while Elversberg earned 43 (an average of 4.3 per match). Based on these figures and summing the average indicators of both teams, we get 8.5 corners on average per match. Therefore, with a small margin, we can assume that the total number of corners in the match will not exceed 10.5.
Despite Heidenheim's unsuccessful performances at the "Voith-Arena" this season (the club secured more victories away than at home), the hosts still remain favorites for the upcoming encounter. Given their experience in the Bundesliga and, conversely, the first serious challenge for Elversberg, we assume that the home team will be stronger.
The most probable outcome of this match is:
We assess the probability of this event as high, based on:
This analysis is for consultative purposes only and does not constitute an inducement to participate in gambling. We do not guarantee the outcome of any sports event, and any interpretation of the information should be based on your own decisions and risks. Sports event results are always unpredictable, and past successes do not guarantee future ones.
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